Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Beware, a roller-coaster weekend ahead
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Bitcoin bottomed at $8,899 on Monday, May 15 and then spend the best part of the week in a tight range limited by $9,300 on the downside and $9,600 on

  • Bitcoin traders brace themselves for the weekedn volatility.
  • The direction of the break through from the range is unclear.
  • Bitcoin traders brace themselves for the weekedn volatility.
  • Bitcoin traders brace themselves for the weekedn volatility.
  • The direction of the break through from the range is unclear.
  • The direction of the break through from the range is unclear.

    Bitcoin bottomed at $8,899 on Monday, May 15 and then spend the best part of the week in a tight range limited by $9,300 on the downside and $9,600 on the upside. Many cryptocurrency experts have been waiting for another attempt to break above psychological $10,000, however, the cryptocurrency market has stayed lethargic amid low trading activity. 

    The weekend may bring some volatility to the market

    Weekends may bring the long-awaited volatility to the market exhausted by range-bound trading. As traditional markets are closed, digital assets are still live, which makes them vulnerable to the swings of investors sentiments. Also, traders usually perform fewer trades, but they tend to be larger in volumes. 

    volatility

    Considering that the market has been slow for nearly a month, even the slightest trigger will do the trick and set the ball rolling. Thick layers of trade orders clustered around the current price make it vulnerable to extreme moves in either direction. 

    Stock market correlation remains an issue

    A prominent cryptocurrency bull and a CEO of a precious metal investment company Dan Tapiero noted that J.P. Morgan expects another stock market rally that may lead to a strong gold and Bitcoin price increase.

    cryptocurrency

    JPM calling for a 47% equity rally from HERE. Don't think I can ever recall such a daring call from them. If more people believed, would be contrarian. Maybe some excess cash goes into #gold and #bitcoin instead. Those mkts still too small to absorb, he wrote on Twitter.

    JPM calling for a 47% equity rally from HERE. Don't think I can ever recall such a daring call from them. If more people believed, would be contrarian. Maybe some excess cash goes into #gold and #bitcoin instead. Those mkts still too small to absorb, he wrote on Twitter.

    While the correlation between the stock markets and Bitcoin remains unclear, the upside momentum may be prompted by more risk-taking environment.

    correlation

    BTC/USD: Technical picture

    On a weekly chart, Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving along the SMA50 at $8,750 since the beginning of May. The price dived below this barrier and attempted a recovery above $10,000 on several occasions, but inevitably returned to the range. The RSI on a weekly chart is mostly flat, which means BTC/USD may stay sidelined for another couple of days. 

    The direction of the breakthrough is not clear at this stage, though the bears might have an advantage as the price tends to stay closer to the lower band of the consolidation channel. Once it is broken, the sell-off may be extended towards $8,420 (the middle line of the weekly Bollinger Band) and psychological $8,000. This area will slow down the downside momentum and serve as a starting point for a new bullish wave. If it gives way, weekly SMA200 at $7,200 will come into focus. Bitcoin has been trading above this MA since the end of April.

    BTC/USD weekly chart

    The daily chart confirms the range-bound trading with the bearish bias as the price stays below the daily SMA50 at $9,400. The local support is created by the lower line of the daily Bollinger Band at $9,150 with the next focus on $9,000 followed by the above-mentioned weekly SMA50 at $8,750. 

    chart

    On the upside, a sustainable move above the recent channel resistance of $9,550 will improve the short-term technical picture and allow for an extended recovery towards psychological $10,000. This barrier is reinforced by the upper line of the daily Bollinger Band.it is, it is dangerous as many retail traders may choose to lock profits at this stage. If this happens, the price will return inside the range once again. 

    resistance

    BTC/USD daily chart

    According to Intotheblock data, over 74% of Bitcoin users are in the money now with 554k BTC addresses have their break even price in the narrow range from $9,500 to $9,600. It means that the bulls may have hard time making their way through this area.

    The Forecast Poll reflects a sight improvement of the market sentiments as the expectations are more optimistic on all time intervals. The weekly and monthly forecasts turned from bearish to bullish, while only quarterly forecast is neutral. The expected price is below $10,000 on all time frames. However, the quarterly expectation recovered above $9,000. It means that the market participants do not believe in a sustainable recovery in the foreseeable future.

    Forecast

    From: FXSTREET